Watford vs Arsenal: Stats Make Gunners Favourites With a Draw An Unlikely Scenario at Vicarage Road

​Arsenal travel to Vicarage Road on Sunday looking for a win that will place them back in the top four, but come up against a Watford side who welcome back former manager Quique Sanchez Flores to the dugout with the club rock bottom of the Premier League table.

A torrid start to the 2019/20 season has seen the Hornets accrue just one point from their opening four fixtures, conceding a whopping six goals so far in their two home matches.

Those poor results saw the end of Javi Gracia, who was shown the exit door after the Hertfordshire outfit drew away at Newcastle - with an announcement coming during the international break that also saw the immediate re-appointment of Flores.

For Arsenal, Unai Emery will know victory will take into the top three in the league, after a mixed start to the campaign has seen them amass seven points from their four fixtures.

On paper the early indications would be leaning towards an away win and, unfortunately for Hornets fans, the stats back up that claim.

The previous three meetings between the clubs have seen Arsenal emerge victorious without conceding a single goal. Last season this fixture ended 1-0 to the visiting side, which was the Gunners' only clean sheet away from home in the entirety of their Premier League campaign.


That run is further compounded by the fact that ​Watford have lost five of their six home league games against ​Arsenal, coming from behind to win the odd one out 2-1 back in October 2017.

There is no mistaking the fact that Sunday's visitors have a shaky - at best - defence, but what will be worrying for the Vicarage Road faithful will be their side's inability to capitalise on that. With only nine clean sheets in Emery's 42 ​Premier League games in charge, the signs aren't good for Arsenal. However, two of those clean sheets have come against Watford.


Furthermore, the Hornets are coming up against a striker in a rich vein of form in the shape of ​Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The Gabonese forward scored the only goal of the game in this clash last season but, moreover, only Mohamed Salah has been involved in more Premier League goals than Aubameyang’s 44 (35 goals, 9 assists) since his debut for the club in February 2018.


With a leaky defence of their own, this could spell real trouble for Flores and co. Where they might stand a chance, however, is from the penalty spot.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

More giving than the Easter Bunny, Granit Xhaka has conceded five penalties since the beginning of the 2016/17 season, level only with Jose Fonte. The Swiss is the key contributor, but he's not the only one. In total, since the start of last season, only Brighton have given away more spot-kicks (10) than Arsenal's nine.


It may be only a glimmer of hope for the home side, from a statistics point of view anyway, but if Watford do fall to defeat at Vicarage Road then they will be setting some unwanted records so soon into the season.


As one of only two sides yet to win in the division, along with Wolves, the Hornets could equal their worst start to a season since 2011/12, when they failed to win any of their first five matches in the Championship. 

They haven't lost five consecutive home matches since December 2013, a run which could return when you factor in results from last season as well. Furthermore, having won their first three home games last season, defeat today will see them lose their first three home Premier League matches, last doing so in the 1991/92 season.

Based on recent history, one thing we can expect is that this clash won't end level. None of the 12 top-flight meetings between the club has ended in a draw (six wins apiece).


Source : 90min

Source: 90min