Why tinker with a winning team Arsene?

In 1971, Eddie Kelly became the first #12 to score in the Cup Final, while Steve Walford's late appearance in 1979 is often considered a reason why that year's victory was more exciting than it should have been.

In recent years it's been a puzzle why we keep losing leads. I hoped this was a thing of the past but this habit has crept back, firstly at Leicester and now at the Reebok. Is it confidence? Concentration? Luck? I've come to the conculsion that our otherwise-brilliant manager has one blind spot - substitutions when we are winning. I first became aware of this flaw in Cardiff in May 2001 when we were 1-0 up against Liverpool and in total control. The moment we brought off a striker and brought on a midfielder we surrendered the initiative and invited Liverpool to attack us for the first time all afternoon, which they did, with devastating results - remember that Fowler should have made it 3-1, when 4-0 to Arsenal would have been a fairer reflection. Last season, we flopped, again against Liverpool, in what I reckon was one of Arsenal's best ever league performances. We were 2-1 up, should have been 5-1 up, when Oleg came on for Dennis with four minutes to go. Once again, we gave them space to score an entirely unmerited equalizer in injury time. This season it was evident at the Walker, when we pulled Freddie off with just two minutes to go and brought on Martin Keown. Okay, we were down to ten men, but Leicester had managed to hold on quite comfortably to nil-nil the last time I went to old Filbert Street three years ago when they were a man down. It happened again last Saturday, Parlour for Bergkamp when 1-0 up. That's four points in two away games. My view is that the team should not change its style unless it needs to (ie unless we're chasing a game). Bringing on Wiltord when 0-2 down at half time to Villa in December '01was a masterstroke, likewise bring Franny Jeffers on at 0-0 v Bolton in the same season (even though we blew it later). But when we're winning, things don't look so good.

This year, it happened again, last weekend, and nearly did at the San Siro. History will regard Inter away rightly as possibly our finest ever performance. We were vastly the better side for almost the entire game - but remember that at 2-1, Arsene took off the excellent Kanu and brought on Gilberto. For the only time in the game, we were then under the cosh (their goal having been against the run of play) and it took a brilliant breakaway third, from an Inter corner and a penalty appeal, to settle the result. We were a bit lucky then, and again against modest Blackburn (Parlour for Bergkamp on 74 minutes) but not so lucky on Saturday. Interestingly, and it pains me to say this, Ferguson showed how it should be done against an admittedly-spineless Spurs yesterday. When he took Fletcher off, he brought on Ronaldo, not a defensive move but a like-for-like change.

My message to Arsene is - don't tinker with a winning team. Games we should be winning at a canter are made to look like a struggle. It's easier to keep a lead when you've got the ball and when the players play in their usual positions. We play a fluid 4-4-2 at our best and when we're not defending in the opponents' half we start to look rattled. If, say, Bergkamp, is tired and you have Ray and Kanu on the bench, bring on the player who usually plays in the same position.

If we finish games thinking as positively as we usually start them I'm sure we'll get even more positive results and give the fans, and the manager, less angst in the last ten minutes.